The Postdoc Path: How Publications and Citations Shape Academic Careers

The postdoc phase is typically considered as the most vulnerable and difficult part of an academic career. The majority of PhDs pursue postdoc positions with the hope of transitioning into faculty positions. The limited vacancy of the faculty positions make it highly competitive game. So what makes the difference between those who are able to transition into faculty positions and those who leave academia? (Leaving academia is not bad, as far as you are satisfied with your new role and live a stress-free life)

A new study [1] illuminates this query by examining postdoc publications, citations, and career paths of 45,000+ scientists over 25 years. The results highlight that postdoc productivity, rather than PhD training, has a greater influence on long-term academic achievement.

Here are the conclusions of this study:

1. Postdoc Productivity Matters More Than PhD Prestige
Faculty success depends more on the postdoc publications and citations than on prestige of the PhD institute.

2. High-Impact Publications Increase Faculty Position Chances
Postdocs with highly cited papers are far more likely to secure and retain faculty positions. The publications during PhD matters less.

3. Decreasing Publication During Postdoc predicts Increased Dropout
A decreasing publication rate during postdoc is a strong predictor of leaving academia.

4. Citation Impact During Postdoc Is More Important Than During PhD
Papers published during postdoc are more predictive of long-term faculty success than papers published during PhD. A highly cited paper during the postdoc can help more than PhD papers.

5. Moderate Changes in Research Topic Are Beneficial
Postdocs who moderately change their research topic (but not drastically) have better career outcomes.

6. Mobility matters: International Postdocs Have Higher Success Rates
Changing institutions or countries for a postdoc improves the chances of obtaining a faculty position.

7. Prestigious Postdoc Institutions Alone Do Not Guarantee Success
Although elite institutions offer superior networking opportunities, ultimate success in the long term remains contingent on research productivity and not solely on institutional prestige.

8. Long Postdoc Phases Can Hurt Career Prospects
Extended postdoc years without high-impact publications decrease the chances of securing a tenure-track faculty position.

The job insecurity affects the research output during the postdoc. Over 40% of postdocs eventually leave academia due to labor market saturation and career uncertainty. Nobody has the solution to stop this brain drain yet.

You are welcome to give any suggestions or comments to change this scenario.

[1]. Duan, Yueran, Shahan Ali Memon, Bedoor AlShebli, Qing Guan, Petter Holme, and Talal Rahwan. “Postdoc publications and citations link to academic retention and faculty success.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122, no. 4 (2025): e2402053122.